“The Zoning argument that the governor has to come from Anambra South might play to Sen. Ifeanyi Ubah’s advantage” —Ebuka Onyekwelu
THE general anthem about the APC in Anambra State in the upcoming governorship election is that after the party’s primary election, it will experience an implosion that will weaken its position and render it incapable of competing against, for instance, APGA. To start with, it is perhaps no more seriously argued that the 2025 Anambra gubernatorial election is between APGA and APC. APGA’s advantage hinges on its status as the ruling party and the fact that the party’s flag bearer is not in contention as of now. More still, having governed for over eighteen years, APGA is a party to beat.
Although so many things have changed. For instance, the party’s popular tolerability might be challenged now, but this will still be tested in the coming election. However, the major prediction of doom for the APC might be connected to a similar experience in the past governorship election in Anambra State. But it should also be clear that under President Tinubu, the politics would be different.
In Anambra State APC today, the two prospective candidates preparing for the party’s primary election are; Sen. Ifeanyi Ubah and Sir Paul Chukwuma. Sen. Ifeanyi Ubah does not need any introduction. In 2019, Ubah used the little-known YPP to win the senatorial election in Anambra South and repeated the feat in 2023 under uncertain circumstances. Surely, he is not to be discountenanced in Nigeria’s political landscape. In Anambra politics, therefore, nobody can dismiss Ubah’s political valour and election-winning proficiency which is tried and proven. Since entering the APC, Sen. Ubah has brought remarkable goodwill to the party, with all his followers in their numbers now in APC. Meanwhile, this is something that was considered almost an abomination only a few months ago. This gives an idea of the value Sen. Ubah has brought with him to his new political family.
On the other hand, Sir Paul Chukwuma who has served the APC in many strides including as its National Auditor, is a faithful party man and one who is well-known within the party hierarchy in Anambra and beyond. Many APC members in Anambra State acknowledge Mr. Chukwuma as the party’s financial pillar. Only during the last Christmas celebration, Chukwuma doled out several food items and cash gifts to APC members in Anambra State, to a magnitude not seen before. So, it’s obvious that Paul Chukwuma is well known to the APC faithful, and this makes him at home at the party. But he hasn’t really won any election before and so falls short of handy assessment of ability for a competent external competition.
Basically, with Sen Ifeanyi Ubah and Sir Paul Chukwuma as the two leading contenders for the APC ticket in the Anambra 2025 governorship election, it is, for want of a better picture, a contention between a field general and a party general. Sen. Ifeanyi Ubah is a field marshal who has mastered the art of winning general elections, while Sir. Paul Chukwuma is a longstanding party man who knows the APC and is invested in the party. But for APC to remain a factor in the coming governorship election in Anambra state, there must be a primary election that will produce a candidate that is capable of matching APGA and the incumbent governor, Prof. Chukwuma Soludo. In other words, for APC to achieve this, both Sen. Ifeanyi Ubah and Sir Paul Chukwuma must be on the same page. Mr. Chukwuma is reportedly financially capable, which is a major factor in Nigeria’s politics. Sen. Ubah’s capability in funding is also not in doubt. However, the general understanding is that funding will not be a problem for a party like the APC because of the fund mobilization machinery of such a national and ruling political party.
Even if zoning is discontinued, is Anambra ready to consider another person from Anambra East LGA, so soon?
However, if we look further into some other important indices that might play a role in the emergence of an APC candidate, then, the first is that popular opinion is in favour of an Anambra South governor. The argument is that even if the incumbent is not returning, the governor still has to come from Anambra South. This zoning argument might play to Sen. Ifeanyi Ubah’s advantage. On his part, Sir Paul Chukwuma might be doubly disadvantaged by the zoning argument because not only is he from Anambra North that just handed over after eight years, but he is also from the same Anambra East local government as the immediate past governor of the state, Chief Willie Obiano. So, even if zoning is discontinued or discouraged, is Anambra ready to consider another person from Anambra East LGA, so soon?
In the final analysis, while Sen. Ifeanyi Ubah is poised to outperform any other APC candidate in the general election based on his track record, followership, and personal abilities, Sir. Paul Chukwuma, his closest rival for the APC ticket, is grounded in the party and Ubah has to cross the party line first to proceed. The real battle is what the candidate of the APC in that election eventually does with the party’s ticket. But it also matters how members and leaders of the APC treat the party’s candidate after the primary election.
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