Nextier SPD Poll On 2023 Presidential Elections; A Free Opinion Or Sacred Fact?
By Washington Osa Osifo, PhD.
THE Labour Party’s (LP) Peter Obi was predicted to win the presidency in a poll conducted on Monday, February 6, 2023. The poll was reported to have been conducted by Nextier SPD, an African-based international development consulting firm, and was widely reported in local newspapers.
One must admit that it is an effort to strengthen our democratic culture by using audience measurement, feedback, and research as models. However, the beauty of conducting these kinds of opinion polls ahead of democratic elections is that they are primarily driven by objectivity which is captured in the methodology employed and reliability of data so collected.
Pre-Election survey of public opinion began in the United States first ever opinion poll which was tallies of voter preferences reported on Telegram Messenger to the 1824 presidential election, showing Andrew Jackson leading John Quincy Adams by 335 votes to 169 in the contest for Presidency. Since then, opinion polls have become part of democracy, especially in advanced democracies including the leading ones in Africa one of which is Nigeria.
Without much of schooling on research ethics or professional conducts in research, the basic ingredients of objective survey, one that can instill public education and confidence will be based on well thought-out methodology or research design, the fundamental of which is to be scientific and avoid biases. The focus of any empirical research is to promote the realm of science and verifiable fact against dogmatism, arbitrariness and rule of thumb in knowledge making. To achieve this noble end, researcher must design a research process that place premium on openness and transparency in data collection and results orientation.
The core of scientific research is verifiable method of data collection which is anchored on sampling and sampling procedure that is opened to integrity test through demonstration of validity and reliability of data collection instrument as well as proof of confidentiality in dealing with the respondents. And since research orientation is based on sample and sampling process, care is always taken to make sufficient provision for error by stating the margin of error in the sampling process to earn public trust and confidence. Serious researchers and research organizations do not take research ethics for granted especially where the expectation of research survey or poll is to earn public respect and acceptability.
Th uniqueness of the opinion poll conducted by NEXTIER is the obvious demonstration of lack of knowledge of research ethics or what can be described as an act of deliberate mischief which should bother every academic mind. Democracy allows for freedom of action and expression but there is limit to how much such freedom should go in other not to lead to abuse of the minds of the others including making utter mockery of the knowledge community.
With such analysis contextualised within the framework of the tools being used to gather and interpret data by NEXTIER there is no question after reading the publication that it more closely resembles personal opinion than a research outcome or opinion poll on an election. By definition, an opinion poll uses fluctuating indices to predict the course of an event. It must follow rules because it is supposed to have a scientific bent. In other words, the poll indicates that a predictable result will occur given a collection of current facts. However, polls often contain personal opinions and judgements because they are about social events that have an impact on human conditions.
According to Nextier SPD, 3,000 respondents were polled face-to-face in both urban and rural areas of all 36 states of Nigeria by 144 enumerators who represented the age and gender demographics in each state and the Federal Capital Territory. Peter Obi is the preferred candidate of 37% of Nigerians, followed by Abubakar Atiku with 27% and Bola Ahmed Tinubu with 24%, according to the results of a face-to-face national poll.
To start with, when you have hundreds of millions of registered voters and you are sampling three thousand registered voters, your results are unreliable and will have a high margin of error. The demographic diversity of the respondents, including their age, gender, and occupation, was not well defined in this most recent poll. Research methodology, sample population, sample size, and probability or non-probability sampling are all familiar concepts to anyone conducting a well-intended fieldwork which were all jettison is that self-styled exercise. The targeting of the 93.5 million registered voters spread across the nation in Nextier polls’ sample was not specified.
Since it is a national poll intended to gauge the popularity of the presidential candidates, Nextier had to specify how many respondents are from each state within this population. The selection of respondents must have taken into account both national distribution of respondents as well as demographic and socioeconomic factors. A close examination of the methodology used for this poll is necessary given that a party that received just 195 votes in the most recent governorship election in Ekiti State is predicted to win the state with 36% of the vote.
In most democracies, election seasons now include opinion polls and well-informed speculation on the likely results of an upcoming election. An opinion poll is an educated guess as to the likely result of an election as a piece of intellectual work. It considers well-known elements and variables of the electoral context. Poll results can aid in the preparation of politicians and the electorate for the inevitable and the imminent if they are based on reliable scientific variables.
In the best of traditions, polls are first and foremost scientific instruments, and they should be free of partisan sabotage and intellectual shortcuts. A poll loses credibility as a tool for making future predictions once its methodology and intent are revealed to be flawed. A pollster who has a history of producing partisan polls with questionable results drifts away from science and toward superstition or partisan jingoism.
The tested predictive validity of a polling company’s or agency’s surveys in numerous instances or on numerous occasions on a wide range of events or subjects determines the credibility of that organisation. Even then, an opinion poll must by necessity include certain indicators that would reassure the public of their objectivity, fairness, and consequently credibility if it is to be respected and reputable.
The size of the polling sample, the methodology used to determine it, its representativeness, geographic scope, age distribution, and occupational composition, as well as the margin of error permitted in the final calculations, must all be made public. When these common verifiable parameters and indices are absent, a published opinion poll leaves itself open to difficult-to-answer questions. No matter how lofty and fantastical the name or status of a poll’s promoter or author may sound, it still has credibility test to pass.This is the challenge to the Nextier SPD polls’ credibility and viability.
The devil is in the details of such inadequacies and gross misapplication of methodology, as well as the ultimate outcomes, despite the need to encourage the use of surveys and polls for election polls forecast.
The results of the exercise show that there are still some undecided voters, which highlights the need for not only more thorough voter education but also for a process retooling and a complete dismissal of the inaccurate results that declared Peter Obi of the Labour Party to be Nigerians’ preferred candidate. Because the premise is flawed and the assumptions are vague, the claimed results are false and misleading.
Self-deception is an extremely dangerous condition. Typically, it begins with a small dose of lies and increases gradually until the victim starts to buy into his or her fabrications. A significant portion of LP members is starting to accept their propaganda. The Nextier SPD’s poll report and others like it only make their situation worse.
The LP situation makes me think of the Yoruba adage about the farmer who planted five yam heaps but kept saying he planted ten heaps. After reaping the five heaps at harvest, he would need to come up with a tale to tell. All I can say is to remind the LP members of the age-old proverbial warning that we shouldn’t count our chickens before they are hatched as they celebrate their anticipated victory.
Washington Osa Osifo, PhD
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